Recent developments in Syria have placed the country at a pivotal juncture, carrying profound implications for its future, for regional stability, and for the broader international order. The fall of the Assad regime, after 54 years power, between Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, marks a seismic shift in the Middle East.

Spot analysis from Carnegie scholars on events relating to the Middle East and North Africa.

The priority of the Assad regime as the conflict in Lebanon rages is political survival, which has taken precedence over all else.

In an interview, Abhinav Pandya discusses the multiple facets of India’s ties with the Middle East.

In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Assad regime has seen measured advances in its situation that fall well short of real success.

Join us for an in-depth discussion on Syria’s gradual normalization with countries in the Middle East and its reinstatement in the League of Arab States in May 2023, a significant step that signals a potential shift in Middle Eastern dynamics and regional security architecture. The normalization process began in 2018 when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain reopened their embassies in Damascus, after Syria had been suspended from the Arab League in 2011 due to its brutal crackdown on protesters. Recently, Türkiye has also shown interest in normalizing relations with Syria, driven by concerns over Kurdish influence in northern Syria and the refugee crisis. The panel will evaluate the normalization process to date, examine the regime's willingness and capability to deliver on its promises, and assess whether the initial motivations of Arab states for normalization have been met. European and U.S. reactions have generally remained more cautious, emphasizing that normalization should be contingent on tangible political reforms by the Assad regime and adherence to human rights standards.

Against this backdrop of developments, the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center is hosting a virtual panel discussion on August 8, at 5:00 PM Beirut Time/ 10:00 AM EDT. The event will feature Sinan Ulgen, Sawsan Abou Zainedin, Abdullah Baabood, and Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and will be moderated by Armenak Tokmajyan.

The discussion will be held in English. Viewers may submit their questions to the panelists using the live chat feature on Facebook and YouTube.

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org.

In an interview, Lynn Zovighian describes how the Yezidi community continues to face profound uncertainty and insecurity. 

As the influence of the Assad regime and Russia declines, Iran is emerging as the main actor, which could provoke a major Israeli intervention.

The Syrian regime has struggled to govern Syria’s south, while the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s influence, making both more reliant on Tehran and its allies in the area. However, this may increase the prospects of conflict between Iran and Israel.